Predictive Staff Modeling: What It Is and What It Does

The many clinicians and support staff that make the modern emergency department run are invaluable resources. But from the administrator’s standpoint, managing staff goes well beyond feeling open ED jobs and creating work schedules. Modern staff management is a highly complex undertaking requiring skill, knowledge, and technology. Enter predictive staff modeling.

Predictive staff modeling is a technology-based tool that makes emergency department management easier and more effective. It doesn’t eliminate all the challenges that come with managing ED staff, but it does equip administrators to make better decisions. If your facility isn’t making use of predictive staff modeling, perhaps it’s time to rethink things.

Predictive Staff Modeling: The Basics

Predictive staff models are advanced analytical tools designed around the concept of combining historical data, machine learning techniques, and statistical algorithms to predict future staffing needs. When used effectively, a model contributes significantly to staff management optimization.

From a forecasting standpoint, predictive staff modeling:

• Analyzes historical staffing and patient volume data.
• Considers patient admission rates and seasonal trends.
• Predicts future staffing needs based on recognized patterns and reasonable estimates.

Accurate forecasting allows for better resource optimization. Schedules can be made more flexible, staff availability can be managed more effectively, and higher patient volumes can be better accommodated. Even shift adjustments can be aligned to changing patient loads.

What It Does for the ED

It goes without saying that predictive staff modeling is a data-driven tool. But as with any such tool, its usefulness relies heavily on how predictive analytics are actually deployed in the ED. That being the case, here is what predictive staff modeling can do for the ED:

• Staff Alignment – Accurate predictions facilitate better alignment between staffing and patient volume. Excess staff are not looking for things to do during slow periods. Likewise, staff are less likely to be overwhelmed when things are busy.
• Flexible Scheduling – Accurate predictions also allow for developing flexible staffing solutions that are more easily adapted to changing patient loads. A flexible schedule allows EDs to quickly respond to unexpected influxes.
• Improved Flow – Adequate staffing is critical to maintaining consistent patient flow. With a predictive staff model in place, administrators can more easily ensure sufficient staff volume to properly manage patient flow and reduce wait times.
• Cost Reductions – Labor continues to be one of the highest costs of the typical ED. Those costs can be better managed through effective staff management protocols. Predictive staff modeling lends itself very well to more efficient management that reduces costs.
• Decision Making – As a data-driven tool, predictive staff modeling contributes to data-driven decision making. Administrators do not have to guess as to their future staffing needs. They can look at data that has been analyzed, compared, and crunched to produce reliable estimates.

A predictive staff model should ultimately lead to better operational efficiency. Data-driven scheduling optimizes staffing levels to ensure that the right volume of staff is covering the ED at any point in a given day. Overtime needs are reduced while employing preferences can be given serious consideration in the scheduling process.

Not a Full Replacement

Whether your facility handles management in-house or works with an ED management company, it is important to understand that predictive staff modeling is a tool that administrators can use to do their jobs better. It is not a full replacement for human knowledge, experience, and skill.

We believe predictive staff modeling is one of the more helpful technologies to come to the ED in a long time. It leverages the best of what predictive analytics offers to make it easier for hospitals to optimize the ED staff.